Steam Wishlist Conversion Rate: What to Expect in Launch Week

Short answer: most Steam games sell about 0.10 to 0.20 copies in the first week for every wishlist they had at launch. GameDiscoverCo's latest estimate puts the median at 0.15 for games with more than 25,000 wishlists, and at 0.10 for games priced above $10. The gap between games is huge, so treat any single number as a starting point, not a forecast.

What "wishlist conversion" actually measures

The number people quote is a ratio: first week sales divided by the wishlists you had the day before launch. It counts every sale in that week, including players who never wishlisted the game. Simon Carless of GameDiscoverCo calls it "not really conversion" for exactly that reason (GameDiscoverCo, December 2024).

You will also see a second number: the share of wishlisters who bought. It is smaller, because it leaves out organic buyers. Check which one a benchmark uses before you compare it with your own launch.

The benchmarks

Source	Sample	Median first week ratio
GameDiscoverCo developer survey, 2020	50 games, self reported	0.20 (0.22 full release, 0.16 Early Access)
GameDiscoverCo developer survey, 2024	100+ games launched since 2020	0.20 overall, 0.17 above 10,000 wishlists
GameDiscoverCo estimates, August to October 2024	about 420 releases	0.105
GameDiscoverCo estimates, 2024 to 2025	games above 25,000 wishlists	0.15, or 0.10 above $10

The surveys are what developers reported about their own games. The estimate studies cover every release in the period, with modeled wishlists and sales. Both land in the same place: somewhere between one first week sale per ten wishlists and one per five.

Why the ratio swings so much

In the late 2024 sample, the bottom quarter of games converted at 4.8% or less and the bottom tenth at 1.9%. The best ones came close to one sale per wishlist. GameDiscoverCo's 2025 data points to a few reasons.

First week reviews

Games that underperformed had a median Steam score of 67% after seven days. The 20 best sellers of the year had 91% (GameDiscoverCo, October 2025). Wishlisters read reviews before they buy, so a Mixed launch costs you sales in the same days the launch email goes out.

The age of your wishlists

The underperformers had spent 411 days on Steam on average before launch, against 214 for the best sellers. A wishlist from two years ago belongs to a player who may have moved on. A wishlist from last month belongs to someone who still remembers why they clicked.

Price and Early Access

Above $10, the median drops from 0.15 to 0.10. That doesn't make a pricier launch worse, it just means fewer copies from the same wishlist pool. Early Access launches also converted lower in the 2020 survey: 0.16 against 0.22 for full releases.

What happens after the first week

Wishlists keep working after launch. Steam emails wishlisters again on any discount of 20% or more, at most once every two weeks per game. If you launch in Early Access, wishlisters get another email when you leave it (Steamworks wishlist docs).

Revenue keeps coming too. In GameDiscoverCo's 2024 survey, the median game earned 3.16 times its first week revenue over its first year (GameDiscoverCo, April 2024).

Players also delete wishlists. Across 22 games that connected Steamworks to Trapster, deletes were a median 7% of adds. What converts at launch is your outstanding count, not lifetime adds. Here is where to find that number in Steamworks.

How to raise your conversion

• Add wishlists close to launch. Fresh wishlists convert better than old ones. A creator campaign in the last weeks before release brings in people who still remember the game when the email arrives. Timing is covered in how to market your Steam launch week.
• Protect the first week of reviews. Fix the bugs your demo players reported before launch, and answer every early review and discussion thread.
• Set the launch discount in advance. It can only be created before the release date and goes up to 40% (Steamworks discount docs). It gives wishlisters one more reason to buy straight from the launch email.
• Plan your first sale. Steam allows no discount for 30 days after release. The first discount of 20% or more after that notifies your wishlisters again. See how to combine a Steam discount with a creator campaign.

Quick math for your launch

Take your outstanding wishlists the day before launch and multiply by 0.10 for a cautious first week, 0.15 for the median and 0.20 for a strong launch. With 20,000 wishlists that is roughly 2,000 to 4,000 first week sales. For estimates from followers and campaign budgets, use our Steam wishlist calculator.

FAQ

What is a good Steam wishlist conversion rate? About 0.15 first week sales per launch wishlist is the median for games above 25,000 wishlists in GameDiscoverCo's latest data. Above 0.20 is a strong launch. Below 0.05 puts you in the bottom quarter.

How many sales will 10,000 wishlists bring? Roughly 1,000 to 2,000 in the first week at typical ratios. First week reviews move it the most, in both directions.

Do all wishlisters buy at launch? No. Many wait for a discount. Steam notifies them again on every discount of 20% or more, at most once every two weeks.

Is conversion lower in Early Access? In GameDiscoverCo's 2020 survey, the median was 0.16 for Early Access launches and 0.22 for full releases.

Why is my conversion lower than expected? Look at your first week reviews and at how old your wishlists are. In GameDiscoverCo's data, the games that underperformed had Mixed reviews and had spent more than a year on Steam before launch.

Sources: GameDiscoverCo newsletter issues from June 2020, April 2024, December 2024 and October 2025; Steamworks documentation on wishlists and discounts. Wishlist delete rates come from studios that connected Steamworks to Trapster.